31 March 2019 is a decisive day for Ukraine: the 7th presidential elections in it's independent history. Many Ukrainian and international experts with reason believe that these elections are historical. However, the view of ordinary Ukrainians onto the political situation in their home country appears to be different: only 9% of the citizens trust their actual government. this is a very, very low figure.
Ukraine's history is very long and contradictory. From 882 AD and for a few centuries, Kiev was the capital of Russia (Kievan Rus). Over most of the Middle Ages, territory of modern Ukraine founded itself under Lithuanian-Polish occupation. The Ukrainian nation started to form in the 15th Century, when this area was divided between Poland and Russia. It thus includes elements of both Russian and Polish cultures. It is in 1654, when Eastern Ukraine (east coast of Dnepr river), with its leader Getman Bogdan Hmelnitskiy, tired from Polish rule, voluntarily decided to become part of Russia as an autonomous region. This decision has protected Ukraine from constant invasions. In 1918, after the 1917 revolutions in Russia, Ukraine was declared an independent republic, but when communists came to power in 1920, it entered the Soviet Union as a union republic. Ukraine was the second wealthiest republic of the USSR, with a relatively high GDP per capita by European standards, as well as a very developed industry. 1991 - declaration of independence.
Since this turning date, it is rather difficult to characterise Ukraine as a successful state. It's economy, even in the record 2013 year, hasn't reached 1990 level. The population massively dying out and migrating into neighbouring Europe and Russia, the country itself is still stuck between the two civilisations.
In the 1990s, Ukraine, like all other post-communist states, experienced deep economic crisis, wild criminality and corruption. However, unlike Russia, Belarus and most other states, this crisis literally continued in the 2000s and 2010s. The government has not managed to take control over the industry and economy. Instead, it became dependent on rich businessmen and bandit groups, the oligarchs. They have all the resources and de-facto own the country. These people are not interested in the life of ordinary Ukrainians. Through all kinds of corruption schemes, they control not only the decisions of the government, but also the so-called "colour revolutions" or "Maidans" and even the presidential seat. This is why Ukrainian elections are so agitating. In 2004, the oligarchs helped win a loyal Yushenko, rather than an independent Yanukovich ("Orange Revolution"). The last one managed to become president in 2010. However, his independent behaviour has caused discontent amongst most oligarchs, and the decision to have closer relationships with Russia has raised criticism amongst the pro-european part of the population and the nationalists. This has lead to the revolution in 2014 ("Euromaidan"), and, as a result, a civil war in the east of the country and separatist movements, especially in Crimea, which has returned to Russia. Ukrainian economy fell into a deep crisis, poverty and corruption grew even more. At this moment, the oligarch Petro Poroshenko managed to win the elections. He promised to stop the civil war in Donbass in five days, to raise the standards of living and the salaries, to "strangle" corruption, as well as to integrate Ukraine into the European Union and NATO. However, as we see today, none of these promises have ever been reached.
There are 39 candidates in the Presidential election. Obviously, most of these so-called "technical" candidates are not worth discussing: most people do not even know, who they are. Only 5 candidates have real chances of reaching the second tour, with an approval rate of about 10% or higher.
Petro Poroshenko
To start, let's look at Ukraine's actual President. His rating oscillates between 14 and 16 percent. According to the last report of 28th March, Poroshenko can hope for 2nd place, meaning second tour.
Poroshenko has won the 2014 elections in 1st tour. How could we evaluate the results of his politics? Indeed, 5 years have changed a lot in Ukraine: unfortunately, few of it could be seen as positive changes. He was promising to erase corruption - corruption grew largely. He was promising to end the civil war in 5 days - during 5 years, the civil war continues. He had promised a European economy - Ukraine's GDP fell by 1/3, and the situation in some spheres of social life, especially healthcare, has become catastrophic (people are not vaccinated against ordinary sicknesses, such as measles, and die! Like in a 3rd World country!). People can no longer afford to buy basic products due to decreasing salaries and inflated communal payments. He did open the doors to Europe, but this resulted in massive emigration of the population. In the East, Ukrainians leave their country too and seek better life in Russia. Obviously, not many people believe in Poroshenko's nationalistic language, religious, military and economic policies, and later we shall see why.
It is thus hard to imagine the total demoralisation and disappointment of the ordinary people, who voted for him in 2014. A great shock has reached the electorate, when recently Poroshenko's opponent Ulia Timoshenko and her adherents (like Mr Avakov, minister of Interior, no longer loyal to Poroshenko) has published proof of massive corruption in Ukrainian military sector. De-facto, Poroshenko-controlled factories were earning great sums on the Donbass conflict, selling technology to the army for inflated prices. This means that all these 5 years, while the President patriotically spoke about the combat against "Moscow's agression", he and his mates were literally filling their pockets! The Donbass conflict has therefore costed big financial losses to the local oligarch Akhmetov and, of course, destroyed the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary people (with over 10 000 deaths since 2014). After the revealing of corruption in Ukraine military, the nationalists, usually loyal to the President, became the greatest harm to his reputation. Almost on every pre-electoral meeting with the people, nationalist troops attack Poroshenko. It is obvious that many candidates will only benefit from such situation. Apart from the provocation against Russia in the Kerch detroit, Petro has also lobbied "autonomy" for Ukrainian church - he initiated the change of Patriarchates. This pre-electoral strategy of December 2018 resulted in nothing else but a Church schism. However it is difficult to imagine how nationalist rhetoric of a corrupt businessman can affect the minds of millions of impoverished Ukrainians, who do not care much about religion schism and language issues. The gas and coal they use in their homes have grown in price drastically. The causes for this are, once again, corrupt schemes such as Rotterdam+, hidden behind slogans of "energy independence" from Russia, as well as obligations to IMF, Ukraine's constant creditor. The President has, indeed, nothing to respond to the population of his country. Once, during a meeting with the people, a woman asked him to raise the pensions. "It's not me who pays you your pensions" - he responded, a kind smile on his face.
This is why it seems obvious that a 2nd tour is impossible for the President, unless elections are flawed or falsified. Falsifications are the responsibility of Ukraine's security services - totally loyal to Poroshenko. Apart from the fact that there are about 40 candidates present at the election (an obvious visual deception), massive strategies are being prepared in order to raise the percentages of Poroshenko: for example, recently dead people will automatically be counted as part of electorate (reminds us of Gogol's 19th Century comedy - "dead souls"). Moreover, Ukrainians living in Donbass, Crimea and migrants in Russia (millions of them, including ex-president Yanukovich!) will not be able to vote, their voices shall be kindly filled in for them. This will be accompanied by total digital control over the information by Ukrainian Security, as well as "traditional" flaw schemes: "carousels", ballot box stuffing etc. This information has not been proved, but become public due to the honesties of Avakov, the minister of Interior.
Nevertheless, Poroshenko is still being supported by some radicals and nationalists, as well as those who are sure that a businessman knows how to control a country correctly.
Vladimir Zelenskiy
Is presently by far leader of the presidential campaign, with an approval rate of over 30% (twice bigger than that of the nearest concurrent). Unlike you could have thought, he is neither a politician, nor a professional economist, but a comedian. You aren't mistaken: a clown with zero experience has all the chances of becoming Ukraine's 6th President. But what are the causes of such a popularity? Zelenskiy is a famous leader of the popular show "Evening Quartal-95". He has also played the role of a dream, ideal President in the comedy "Sluga Naroda" (Servant of the People). On the eve of the elections, a new third season of the comedy has been shown on main TV channels. The scenario of the film is more and more a clear illustration of today's Ukrainian political reality: we can almost recognise Poroshenko, Timoshenko and other figures as the main antagonists of the "story", who will lead the country to destruction and collapse. To them is opposed a fair, kind and charismatic ex-history teacher, the role of whom is played by Zelenskiy, who will save the country and build a "dream Ukraine".
Zelenskiy doesn't have a clear program. Very seriously, this comedian suggests the population to participate in writing the program in the Internet. In what concerns cadres, the ministers and parliamentarians are to be chosen through a fair contest. Explaining his lack of political experience, he said:
"indeed, we don't have any political experience: we don't understand corruption schemes. But we are building a dream country".
Zelenskiy is less radical concerning language issues (he is against the banning of Russian in Ukraine, he speaks Russian himself). Like all the others, he promotes ideas of peace in Donbass, and intends to initiate direct discussions with representatives of the Russian authorities (European politicians find this idea naïve). He also suggests to introduce a Russian-speaking Ukrainian TV channel, the aim of which should be the encouraging of the inhabitants of Crimea and "occupied" Donbass to want to return in Ukraine. Concerning NATO, Zelenskiy is also orientated towards the membership of his country in this organisation. He proposes a referendum. Ideas of such a popular leader will in any way be supported, even though today only 40% of Ukrainian population supports NATO.
Although many do believe him, Zelenskiy is far from being the embodiment of the hero he plays in the "Servant of the People" film. Although he had never been involved in criminal or corruption scandals, Zelenskiy is since many years a business partner of Kolomoyskiy, another Ukrainian oligarch and owner of "1+1" TV channel, which therefore includes the studio of "95 Quartal", the leader of which is Zelenskiy himself. The favourite candidate denies being sponsored or supported by Kolomoyskiy, however it is obvious that they are at least not enemies.
Ulia Timoshenko
Is also called "the gas princess". Prime-minister (2007-2010) under Yushenko. Despite numerous crime accusations, she had managed to prevent a default in Ukraine in 2008 (during the Wrold financial crisis) and maintain implementation of social obligations, to nationalise some entreprises and animate modern industries, as well as to prevent gas price growth for the population. In 2009, together with Russian Prime-Minister Vladimir Putin, a gas contract has been reached. It presumed direct payments by Ukrainian government at a low price for Russian gas, but also excluded the transit of money through the criminal Ukrainian "RosUkrEnergo" company. Under Yanukovich, Timoshenko was in prison. She is now free and amnestied by the ECHR, but is still filled with envy for her old political opponent - Poroshenko (they were concurrents for Prime-Minister seat since 2004). Determinated to enter the Second Tour, Timoshenko's political rhetoric appears very similar to Poroshenko's: both speak of EU and NATO integration, both speak of peace in Donbass and of raising pensions. The "gas princess" bases her program on "energetic independence" of Ukraine and on hatred towards Poroshenko. She was the initiator of the investigations relating to Poroshenko's corruption in the military sector and in the falsifications which are being prepared by his secret services (still not proved). The secret services, on their hand, have also found evidence of falsifications being prepared, in favour of "the woman with the braid" - a second name she is often called by. The radical politician Lyashko, also a candidate in the elections (approval rate not more than 5%) has collected compromat on Ulia Timoshenko and publicly made the deputies of the Rada (Parliament) listen to her presumable (the fact it was her actual voice hasn't been proved) telephone call to oligarch Kolomoyskiy. Timoshenko doesn't care. The television screens continue showing her constant and long-lasting speeches. She talks about everything: from stories of her previous life to "plans for impeachment" of today's President. According to her, Petro is planning to "buy" the voices of the people, paying 1000 Hrivna for each voice in his favour.
Uriy Boyko
Finally, it is important to keep in sight the opposition politician Boyko, very popular in the East of the country. Unlike all other candidates, he does not limit himself to populist speeches about peace in Donbass, but suggests a completely different scenario of resolution of the crisis. According to him, Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts must become autonomous regions, with Parliaments and governments of their own, but remaining part of Ukraine.
Boyko is the only candidate ready to dialogue with Moscow and reanimate trade and partnership with Russia. On the 22nd of March, he visited Moscow and met Russian PM Medvedev and head of "Gazprom" Alexey Miller. Russia's position is clear: it is ready to prolongate the 2009 gas contract, as long as certain conditions are respected. Boyko and his opposition party "Za Zhitta!" ("for life!") are intending to cooperate, in order to enable a reduction of 25% of the price for gas for final consumers - the people.
It is clear that Boyko's position is radically different to that of most other candidates. However, it appears to be difficult for him to gain popularity due to lack of administrative resources which support him.
Presidential elections in Ukraine will take place very soon and will be followed by Parliamentary elections. With no doubt, 31 of March is a decisive date in Ukrainian history. The people will have to choose a new leader. Whoever it would be, he/she will have to answer numerous vital questions in order to maintain stability in the country, to raise standards of living and prevent another revolution.
It is amazing that even 2 days before the elections, we have no idea of who is going to win them. What is your opinion concerning the situation. WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN? WHO WOULD YOU LIKE TO WIN? Please write your answers IN THE COMMENTS!
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