The Issue at Hand
Venezuela has been going through a constitutional crisis for quite a while now. It all starts in May 2018, when president Maduro called a snap election (an election that isn’t planned, a surprise vote) and won a second six-year term of the presidency. However, most of Venezuela’s opposition parties either boycotted the elections, were banned from them or thrown in prison. As such, the leader of the opposition and leader of the national assembly (the parliament) Juan Guaido called the elections unconstitutional.
What’s key here is that Maduro didn’t actually start his second term in May 2018. He decided to wait until the end of his term on January 10th, 2019 in order to be sworn in. He did this in order to maximize the amount of time he has as president. Starting in January gives him an extra six months as president than if he started in May.
Where the Crisis Begins
But remember when I said the national assembly called the election unconstitutional? Well, because of that, Maduro isn’t actually the president if the assembly is concerned. What happened is that since the assembly called the election unconstitutional, there is officially no Venezuelan president. So, according to the Venezuelan constitution, the leader of the national assembly becomes president, in this case it’s Juan Guaido.
You may be asking yourself, where’s the problem then? Well, a large portion of the government is loyal to Maduro. The military and police have gotten large bribes in the form of pay raises for “loyalty”. This means that no one can get rid of Maduro so there’s a power struggle between Guaido and Maduro. Maduro is very unpopular so the people and the assembly believe Guaido is president while the military and police see Maduro as president.
International Reaction
To make it worse, different countries around the world disagree over who to recognize as president. Here’s a map of who recognizes who as of today (the 26th of January).
Maduro is calling the crisis an attempt from the U.S. to oust him as president. He threated the United States to remove all of their diplomats from Venezuela or face being detained. In retaliation, the U.S. declared that if any of the diplomats were even touched, they would reply “appropriately”. Many people have taken this to mean military intervention but it is not clear yet. However, any military intervention would be faced with fierce resistance and would most likely become a global incident.
It's Not their First Problem
This isn’t the only problem plaguing Venezuela. For a long time, the Venezuelan currency has been crashing. In 2018, the Venezuelan Bolivar experienced 1’300’000% inflation and the average time it took prices to double was 19 days. Understandably, Venezuelans are angry, and the overwhelming majority blame Maduro. This has led to frequent riots where thousands of Venezuelans march through the streets demanding change.
So, who's right here? Should other countries be involved with Venezuela or should they leave it alone? Maduro or Guaido? Tell us in the comments!
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