15th of January 2019 was the day of Theresa May team's total failure in the British Parliament. What happened, which possible solutions there are to solve the current political crisis, as well as how Brexit in general is a turning point in the European Unions' history - in our material.
Great Britain has entered the European Union in 1973. The idea of creating a «European United States» integration appeared after the end of World War Two. The continent was lying in ruins and starving, and a new conflict would mean a catastrophe. EU itself was founded in 1957 (treaty of Rome). Today, this organization includes 28 members and appears as one of the best examples of international integration in History.
The UK has never been aiming for deep integration, always seeking independence. For example, it didn't join the Schengen zone in 1985, and refused to introduce the Euro in 1992. Numerous problems in the Union, along with the economic crisis, have awaken anti-European moods amongst the population and the elites starting in 2010. In 2013, British PM David Cameron declared that a referendum will indeed take place. This referendum occurred only 3 years later, on the 23rd of June 2016. 52% of the population voted «leave». Since then, the country has entered a long process of so-called «Brexit». According to the agreement (600 pages), the UK should leave on the 29th of March 2019, in the way which is called «soft Brexit», suggesting that it should stay relatively open and integrated with Europe. It was Theresa May’s initiative to leave «softly», considering the high number (48%) of British people who had voted «stay». However, on the 15th of January 2019, the Parliament voted against May’s Brexit version, which she had already discussed with Brussels in November. Now, the country has the choice either to proceed in the terms of «hard Brexit» (blocking all integration processes with Europe and becoming entirely independent), or to stop or postpone Brexit. This means that Britain will probably not exit in March, and, although May has conserved its Prime Minister post, she will now have to find new compromises with her Parliament (many members of which have already left it).
For Britain, leaving the European Union is a historical moment. By exiting the EU, the country aspires to stop massive immigration and develop its economy. But it also needs to take into consideration the negative effects of Brexit: arising international concurrence, risks of protectionism, loss of key markets. The government will also need to solve several national problems, such as separatism (it is necessary to remind that Northern Ireland and Scotland, regions characterized by separatist movements, have voted for «staying» with the EU, which has strengthened the division amongst them and England), the border with Ireland and the question of foreigners in Britain and British citizens abroad.
Brexit concerns by far not only Great Britain. It is an alarm signal for the whole Union itself. In order to see how unstable the situation is today, we must look deeper into the processes happening in other countries.
Italy
Italy has been amongst the first countries to join the Treaty of Rome (future EU). Today, its economy is almost stagnant, and the population remains sceptic concerning the migrants problem, which shows all its negative sides especially sharply here.
Poland
Like all countries of Eastern Europe, Poland continues to receive economic aid from Brussels. Recently, however, the European government has suggested to stop sending such subsidies to Poland. The response from Warsaw was very quick: Polish government declared its preparedness to leave the EU in this case. Despite its clear pro-western position, Poland has scandalously behaved itself in this situation.
Hungary
Over the last years, Hungary has started to demonstrate a completely opposite position regardless the question of migration. At a recent assembly of EU members, Victor Orban has vigorously stood up against Franco-German migration policies. Just like Italy and some other countries, Hungary is not supporting anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, the Hungarian government is interested in the transit of natural gas by the «Turkstream-2» pipeline, as well as other invest-projects with Russia.
Bulgaria
In 2014, under the pressure of the European Commission, Bulgarian authorities have refused to collaborate with the «Southstream» project, lead by Russia. Today, having counted all the money the country could have earned through gas transit, the Bulgarian Prime-Minister Boyko Borisov seeks partnership with Russian government concerning the new gasoline - «Turkstream». The European community can hardly do anything against that. A similar situation concerns Greece and Balkan states. This is an obvious example of contradictions amongst EU member states. At one point, they need to decide whether they are political allies with Europe, or if they want to be free in seeking partners for economic development. Europe should also ask a question: is the EU a political or an economical unification?
Ex-Yugoslavia
Most countries of this region are aspiring to become members of the EU. However, the memory of the war is still remaining here. Serbia, in order to join the Union, must first of all accept Kosovos' independence, which it is not ready to do. Macedonia has organized a referendum, but as a result of a very low participation its results have been annulated. This is not a reason, however, for the Parliament to vote for the re-naming of the country. It is thus suggested that most of these countries could indeed join the EU in the next decade, but in order to do that, a patient and intelligent policy, which corresponds to the interests of the people and of each member state, is required. The EU must therefore also develop a maximally loyal strategy in relation to the self-determination of the nations. Any military intervention could result in a serious risk for the Union itself.
Baltic states
The governments of these post-soviet republics have an obvious anti-Russian and even nationalist point of view in international relations. Brussels, however, does not run for investments into the countries' economies and infrastructure systems, whereas Russia seeks to free its logistics and infrastructure from Baltic ports, railways and gasolines, in this way isolating the three countries. This has a very bad impact on the economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The EU, in order not to lose these territories, must stay a decent partner.
Spain
Over the last years ravaged by numerous problems, such as economic crisis, massive illegal immigration and very high unemployment, Spain does have some problems in relationships with Brussels, though it stays more loyal to them. The situation of Spain is worsened by separatism in Catalonia. A growing question of tension is that of British Gibraltar. Is is supposed that if Britain leaves the EU, the border between the Gibraltar city and Spain must be strengthened. This causes protests amongst the Spanish population, however the UK is not disposed to "returning" Gibraltar to anybody else.
France
France is Europe's third economy and has one of the strongest armies of Western Europe. This gives it a lot of power to act in European processes. Recently, during the celebrations of the 100-th anniversary of the Victory in WW1, where leaders of many countries had been invited, Mr Macron declared his ideas of creating a European Army. This could not have caused Washington's approval. However, it is difficult to evaluate how realistic such grandiose plans are of a President, who's country is ravaged by protests of people, not satisfied with the country's economic state.
Germany
A sudden declaration of Mrs Merkel's plans to leave politics in 2021 has, certainly, shocked the population, however this could not mean any drastic changes to the countries' future policies. Recent events, especially the Chemnitz revolts, have shown a division of the German people. Some support the tolerance of the government, others stand against it, including the growing number of nationalists. Germany, being a key figure in the European Union, must have a firm position in its political and economical policies. It is Germany, as being a powerful economy, which sets the tone to most other countries. This is why this country must feel responsibility for all processes happening on the continent. A symbol of German self-determination could be, for example, the NorthStream-2 project. Despite pressure from the United States, the companies continue to collaborate with Russia in the project.
The European Union is a unique and exemplary organization which has been created with good intentions. It surely has achieved great successes: economic prosperity, cultural exchanges, scientific progress and relatively low social inequality. However, it is impossible not to note that the Union is in many ways unstable and vulnerable, its structure hiding many risks. This is undoubtably caused by numerous problems: migration, economic concurrence, foreign pressure etc. In order to solve them, Europe needs rationalism and wiseness in its policies. It must not be forgotten that in the EU each country has the right to be heard and, when needed, helped.
Brexit does not necessarily mean the start of the end of the EU. The structure of the Union with its core in the face of Germany will be conserved. However, doesn't the exit of one country mean a growing tension amongst all member-states?
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